The conventional wisdom is that expresses are evil and should be avoided. But I don’t agree with that, and here’s why. Even though the margin on express bets is much higher than single bets (at least by multiplying that margin), there are benefits to express bets.
Let’s state straight away that express betting on the distance is mathematically unprofitable. This can easily be shown by an example. If an event with 90% probability (kf 1.1), play a double, the probability of two events with 90% probability of going in would drop to 81.3%, with a triple it would drop to 73.1%, etc. At 10 events it would be 32.5%.
That’s why express bets are generally unprofitable at the distance and are favoured above all by bookmakers. With that out of the way, I’ll now share with you some ideas about why express betting isn’t always evil. Here we go!
Salvage of bad ideas
Expresses involve a string of single bets. It is assumed that there will be a lot of events in a parlay. That means that some, or maybe all, of those events would still be placed, but in single bets.
There are likely to be plenty of risky or ill-advised bets among those events. This means that by paying once for an express bet, you can dispose of several, and sometimes a whole ton of bad ideas that would have been placed in single bets and cost you more.
Expresses are like an absorbent taking over the purge
You’ve quenched your thirst by betting all you want, and then you can more consciously choose the best one for a single bet. Bad ideas are disposed of in the express, and there is a chance to get a clean result of your abilities in the moment, right now. If this form is unsatisfactory, it’s a reason to select events more carefully or change your approach.
Opportunity to keep tone of form
The large number of events involved requires you to have an idea of what you’re betting on, unless you’re a tinkerer and hoover the line by taking everything. This means that you need to be guided in what you’re betting on, which allows you to maintain a good competitive tone. In the right tone, when you’re in shape, it’s much easier to pick a good bet for a single pick, where you have to collect the best – a fresher of bets.
And the express in this case will also act as a catalyst for your form, perfectly showing what you’re capable of in the here and now. It will be a great signal of how brave you need to be in single bets. If almost all of your ideas are going into the breakdown, it is better to minimise the number of bets, but if you are on fire and your predictions are producing many passes, it might make sense to be more active and decisive in your main singles bets.
You risk a little, you can win a lot
A parlay involves a big odds and a good odds even with a small bet can give you a big payout. That said, you don’t have a lot of responsibility, you can reassure yourself that there is no expectation of each Parlay to go through (indeed, there can never be), but you can also count on the stars to align and you’ll make a winning, which you won’t be ashamed to tell your friends or write about in “RB”. A parlay is also a signal to the bookmaker that you intend to play, not take it out, and will be much more cordial in dealing with possible future disputes.
Relax is fun
Parlay betting is quite a gambling story. You can place a bet on a championship round and pull it all weekend, for example. It will be your adventure, your story, which may well be a pleasure to remember. Dramatic defeats, when the Express is blown away at the last minute or in the final seconds, are also fun to remember, even if it’s not as pleasant. And you can also do expresses with colleagues and friends, offer them a game where everyone chooses one event from which you do a collective express. You split the winnings in half and the loss is paid by the one who suggested the losing idea. It’s fun, it’s gambling, it’s competitive, and it might not be costly at all. It’s quite a bearable team building activity.
As you can see, an express isn’t always evil, you just need to be able to find the upsides, and there are certainly some, that this kind of betting can bring. But remember, expresses are, of course, a losing proposition over the distance, so don’t get carried away. Profit to all!