In a new piece in my column on professional sports betting, I discuss why it is impossible to beat a bookmaker over the distance if you bet on the main betting margins in pre-match: outcome, handicaps and totals.
I often get rebuked for what I say about sports betting. For example, my phrase “I firmly believe that it is almost impossible to win by hand before the match on outcomes, handicaps and goal totals”. You can find it in my latest article on whether betting is better in live or pre-match. Often phrases are taken out of context and they do not understand the meaning of what is written.
In the new piece, I’ll try to break down this particular topic in more detail: it’s very general and will answer some side questions. Below are nine reasons why you can’t beat a bookmaker over the distance in pre-match on outcomes, totals and handicaps.
The pre-match line on football is written by computer and analyst(s). All factors that are available at the time the line is released are taken into account. For 99.9% of players there is only himself and a manual statistic that starts to tire after analyzing the 10th match already. In this struggle, the forces are unequal.
If you “beat” this kind of betting on a verifier without putting up your own money, it does not mean that it is possible to “rule” such markets. Trust me. Psychology plays a big role for many players. I’ve seen more than once how a person, when going to bet at least 5 thousand rubles each, could not control himself and choose at least one bet. To put it crudely, people’s heads explode with success at low limits and the fear of losing more appears with the increase of the amount one is risking.
When you have a “machine” working for you, which bets everything according to a certain algorithm, you are less prone to psychological drawdown. After all, you’ve used retro data to check your algorithm, and everything has worked before. This is slightly more applicable to LIVE betting. When you’re working “manually”, after three or five losses you start to doubt yourself, and in betting doubt is a comparison of death.
When you “beat” this kind of betting, but bet a thousand roubles at a time for a month and end up with 3 thousand in surplus, it’s ridiculous. Try doing that for a couple of years and not get burned out.
If you think you’ve really beaten the bookmaker, betting 5,000 roubles a month and withdrawing 15,000 roubles a year from the office, it’s a sad story, too. To make money on handicaps, outcomes and goal totals over the distance, you need to bet at least a thousand dollars each. OK, you can afford it. But what happens to you when you hit a 5 match draw? Yes, no one will ever be able to hold their own when betting that kind of cache just by hand.
Someone will have the logical thought of playing the line out. I tested this option last autumn and got my accounts banned in CIS betting shops. Most likely, I was just mistaken for a stupid fork. That is why you have to go to brokers, where there are many times more professionals, and many of them have everything automated. For example, there are special programs that “loudly” notify about a fresh line.
Again, if you play long before the match on the broker, you can miscalculate with injuries, coaching, and the condition of the team as a whole. If you play before the game, in most cases your rival players will play before you. Incidentally, many people still think that their competitor is an office. The same situation will not be played in CIS betting shops for a long time (see previous point).
And now for the most important thing: just imagine the amount of data you have to process to find a bet for which you can load a large sum of money. Let’s say 50,000 roubles. Go back now to the thought of a 5 match drawdown on such bets and your goals, given that you have to feed yourself and your family.
Somebody has ideas of playing second and third leagues as well as Latinos or other third-rate football on the broker. But how much will they let you bet there, let alone on our offices? And even at a broker on the lineout they don’t give you a lot of money to bet, even on the top championships. It all comes down to your goals and level of earnings, and everyone has different figures.
Bookmakers try in every way possible to prevent bettors from making profits over the long haul. The forces are really unequal: BKs have the software and computer technology to calculate and minimize risks, while players have to rely on their patience and hard work, and struggle with gambling and bad streaks. Winning is only possible if you have a sizeable bankroll, the ability to analyse games well, excellent composure, and a good handle on your money management.